In The Polyester Market After The Festival, The Weaving Factory'S Radicalization And Apprehension: This Bet Bet Geometry?

During the May 1 holiday, crude oil and polyester began to warm up, and opened up a wave of rising prices.

So what caused the rise of polyester?

When the good news is released, polyester is rising.

The rise in polyester is actually driven by the rise in crude oil futures. The international crude oil futures rebounded strongly. The US oil June contract rose 6 days, rising from 12 US dollars per barrel to 25 US dollars / barrel. Recently, after the liquidity crisis was lifted in the oil market, the effect of the oil production reduction agreement of the major oil producing countries provided strong support for the oil price, and began to rebound at a low level.

　　 Crude oil, as the raw material of the polyester market, has a cost driving effect on polyester products. Before the May 1 holiday, the impact of the protective clothing fabric is very high, and the specifications of polyester filament have been raised by about 50 yuan per ton. The replenishment atmosphere of the downstream weaving factory is picking up.

In addition, the multinational countries outside Shanghai announced that they would begin to relax the blockade measures to control the epidemic. In May 4th, a number of governments in Italy, Finland and the United States took action to relax the blockade measures to restart the economy. As well as the Ningbo PTA device accident, involving about 700 thousand tons of capacity, under the stimulation of this series of good news, the market has restored some confidence, and polyester has opened up a rising channel.

Moreover, the polyester price is at a low level. If we can see the continuous rise of polyester yarn, the downstream stocking atmosphere will continue to heat up. The chemical fiber plant sees this rare continuous rise, and naturally hopes to stimulate the downstream stock through price increases.

How long can this polyester wave continue?

Terminal orders missing, become the biggest resistance of polyester rise.

The textile market is still decided by the downstream orders. The order of the terminal is deficient, and the purchasing strength can not keep up. At present, the rise of polyester is probably just a flash in the pan.

Although Europe has rebounded somewhat, but then it has gone down again, but the epidemic in the United States has not improved significantly. Many traders also said that Europe and the United States have not yet resumed the order, even the proofing notice has not been seen.

Since the end of April, some anti epidemic products, such as polyester taffeta, spring Asian spinning and Oxford cloth, can be used to make protective clothing and shroud bags, which are starting to be hot. Hundreds of thousands of meters are easily placed down. Orders from manufacturers are just needed to replenish them. But this is also limited to the production of these grey cloth manufacturers can receive orders, market improvement is not obvious, most manufacturers in the future for a long time will continue to be faced with the lack of orders, gray cloth inventory rise.

Judging from the situation of China's silk net monitoring, the inventory of grey fabric has increased to 43 days in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, which is about 6 days higher than the 37 days in the same period last year. The inventory has increased by 20 days compared with the same period of the same period of the previous year. Now the stock of grey fabric has risen to a high level in the past three years. High is terrified.

　　 Grey cloth is money, can not sell, the money is pressed in the warehouse, but looms are still in production, which makes weaving manufacturers are really pressure mountain, less cash on hand, naturally there is not enough cash to hoard raw materials, which is the greatest resistance to polyester.

The demand is not reliable, and the price increase is in vain.

In fact, for cloth boss, the most desired situation is that raw materials are rising and cloth prices can go up. This is the real profit.

From the current situation, the rise of cloth prices is lagging behind, and it is very difficult to rise. Or because of the lack of orders, cloth can not sell, what is the rise? A cloth boss who owns more than 100 looms said: "unless the raw material has gone up a lot, it is difficult to keep up with the fabric, and the production capacity of the grey fabric is too high. Many manufacturers' stocks are exploding, and demand is decreasing. Now we buy high raw materials, low price cloth, and our profit has not improved. We have done four rounds of ammunition, and the price has dropped by 7%-8% since the end of the year. Moreover, the price of customers is very frequent, and we simply dare not increase the price of raw materials.

Under the suppression of two big mountains with high inventory and low demand, the pressure of gray cloth rising is very large. Many cloth owners say that even if the raw material is up 500, the grey cloth will not rise. In addition, the current epidemic situation has not yet been fully controlled, and the local market is not hot enough to drive the whole market to a better turn. Most manufacturers adopt the strategy of purchasing and purchasing, which is more prudent in procurement.

Future prospects are uncertain, weaving companies need to be cautious about hoarding goods.

In the short term, with the support of crude oil and the rising trend of polyester, it is obvious that some enterprises with sufficient financial strength may want to hoard raw materials. Of course, if the capital is ample, they can take advantage of the opportunity to hoard a bit, and then invest in it, and those who lack sufficient funds think that the most important thing is to keep the pool of funds now, and crude oil and polyester. The future prospects are not very clear, and there is a risk of downfall. When the terminal demand does not improve significantly, Xiaobian thinks that it should not be too radical.