Textile And Garment Industry Has Been Hit Repeatedly. The Price Of Polyester, Nylon And Acrylic Fiber Has Declined.

At the beginning of the year, public health and safety incidents broke out in China. In the textile industry, the chain of middle and lower ends of cotton textile, weaving, dyeing and finishing, clothing and so on was particularly obvious. Until February 10th, the industry started to improve gradually, but textile enterprises had just entered the production schedule, but not long ago, overseas entered a deeper and more serious situation in March. We have received orders for postponing orders or even withdrawing orders. As of March 31st, the number of overseas diagnoses has reached more than 636 thousand, and domestic textile personages have struggled from the beginning to the present voluntarily giving up, and the price competition of textile products has also led to a series of decline in product prices.

China is the world's largest producer and exporter of textiles and clothing, and the textile and garment industry is a traditional export commodity for China's foreign trade, and has a high dependence on the international market. Statistics It has been shown that the amount of textiles and clothing exported to China has gradually stabilized since 2006, and the proportion of textile and clothing exports to total exports has gradually declined after 2017, but the proportion is still more than 10%.

Fig. 1 the proportion of textile and clothing exports to trade exports

Moreover, China is still the most complete and perfect country in the global textile industry chain. For example, fiber production, polyester, nylon, acrylic, spandex and viscose all occupy the first place in the world. China's polyester fiber production accounts for 71.5% of the world's total polyester production capacity. Viscose (including lysell) accounts for 72% of the global viscose production capacity, and nylon accounts for 79% of the total production capacity of the world's nylon.

Figure 2 China's chemical fiber production accounts for the world's share.

Along with the development of textile industry in Southeast Asian countries, the structure of China's textile and clothing export has also changed. Textile exports have gradually increased, but clothing exports have gradually declined since 2014. The proportion of textile exports to China's total exports has been adjusted from 4.88% in 2010 to 4.81% at present, and the proportion of clothing exports has dropped from 8.21% in 2011 to 6.06% at present. But clothing exports still occupy a major proportion.

Fig. 3 structural changes of export volume of textiles and garments

The decline in clothing exports and the rise of textile exports to some extent are related to the differences in the export targets of China's textile industry. Textile exports are mainly to emerging countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Turkey, and clothing exports to the European Union and developed countries in the United States are the majority. However, after the import of textile raw materials from China into garments, most of the emerging economies also export to developed countries. Therefore, emerging economies will impact China's clothing exports to a certain extent, but at the same time stimulate the demand for China's textile intermediate products, and turn to see that the demand changes of these developed countries will not only directly affect China's clothing exports. It also indirectly affects the demand for textiles in emerging countries.

According to relevant data, the European Union, the United States and Japan are the top three importers of clothing in the world, and have imported 61.5% of the world's clothing. However, with the development of the epidemic in North America and Europe, China's textile and clothing industry has been hit by the same trend, and the price of the three synthetic fibers is also declining.

Polyester fiber

The price of polyester fiber, including polyester filament, has reached a new low of 5 years or even 10 years. According to long Zhong information statistics, the average price of polyester filament POY150D/48F market in 2020 1-3 was 7157.26 yuan / ton, 7107.14 yuan / ton, 5978.23 yuan / ton, down 13.90%, 16.35%, 32.44% respectively. As of March 31st, the focus of polyester filament POY150D/48F trading was 4700 yuan / ton, a sharp decrease of 2000 yuan / ton compared with the end of 2, which dropped 2500 yuan / ton over the year.

chart 42019-2020 Monthly yield variation of polyester filament in 2000

Not only that, polyester filament production and sales growth both slowed down. According to long Zhong information statistics, the production of polyester filament in March 2020 was 2 million 155 thousand tons, an increase of 35.3% in the ring ratio, down 8.7% from the same period last year. In 2020 1-3, the output of polyester filament was 5 million 771 thousand tons, down 8.2% from the same period last year. The average production and sale rate of polyester filament Market in March 2020 was 67.7%, an increase of 54.6 percentage points, a decrease of 29.7 percentage points over the same period last year. In 2020 1-3, the average production and sale rate of polyester filament market was 42.2%, down 35.4 percentage points over the same period.

nylon

At present, the mainstream price of nylon spinning has dropped by 14%-17% compared with that before the Spring Festival. In March, the price of the semi dull POY85D/24F of nylon filament in the East China market was 11400-12300 yuan / ton, as compared with the beginning of March 31st, which dropped by 2050 yuan / ton, or 14.69%, and DTY70D/24F talked about 14400-15300 yuan / ton, down 2050 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, or 12.16%; FDY70D/24F talked about 12800-13200 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month. It fell 2100 yuan / ton, down 13.9% from the beginning of the month, and the 1.5D*38mm of nylon polyamide staple negotiated 12000-13500 yuan / ton, down 1350 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Table 3 price fluctuation table of main type of polyamide fibre in East China

Unit: yuan / ton

The start of the nylon industry is also a situation of first increase and fall after the public health events at home and abroad. As of March 12th, the operating rate reached 74%, which was 18 percentage points higher than that of the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the average stock value of the spinning mill was increased by 40-60 days due to the obstruction of downstream orders. In order to alleviate the pressure of inventory, the production of nylon decreased at the end of 3 months. The overall start up is 68%.

Fig. 5 change of start-up rate in nylon industry

Acrylic fibres

At present, acrylic fiber has been in a high inventory and tight capital chain. In addition, the price of raw acrylonitrile has also dropped to below 8000 yuan / ton. The cost side is weak and the demand is depressed. In March, the acrylic fiber manufacturer limited production and also sharply reduced prices. By the end of the month, the price of acrylic staple fiber dropped to 12800-13000 yuan / ton, down 1200 yuan / ton compared with the end of January.

Table 4 price list of acrylic fiber industry chain

Unit: yuan / ton

From the start of the industry, the domestic acrylic fiber starting rate in February dropped 12 percentage points to 48% in January compared with that in January, although it has rebounded in March, but it is still less than 60%. Moreover, due to the sharp shrinkage of orders in the 2 quarter, acrylonitrile enterprises are preparing to stop or reduce production in April under high storage and capital pressure. Among them, Jilin chemical fiber with the largest capacity in the world, Qifeng and Gaocheng devices both stop in April, and Jilin League also falls to 4 load, and its overall start-up rate is less than 20%. In addition, Sinopec's acrylic fiber plant also had a further reduction plan in April, of which the second domestic acrylic fiber plant Shanghai petrochemical project was reduced to 4 load. It was estimated that the opening rate of domestic acrylic fiber enterprises dropped to about 35% in April, which is the lowest in the past year.

Fig. 6 change of starting load in acrylic fiber industry

As prices of raw materials and acrylonitrile prices are expected to reach the bottom of 7000 yuan / tonne in April, the price of acrylic fiber will also go down all the way, and will soon refresh the lowest level of 12400 yuan / ton at the end of 2015.

Although the situation in the textile and garment industry is more severe, the total value of China's imports and exports is increasing year by year, though the situation is large. Since 2007, China's dependence on foreign trade has begun to decline gradually. Until 2019, China's dependence on foreign trade has dropped from 63.17% in 2006 to 31.81% at present. 。 Secondly, from the perspective of trade relations between China and the United States, the amount and proportion of imports from the United States continued to grow year by year during the period -2019 in 2005. And since 2007, China has become the largest source of import in the United States and continues to this day. However, the share of China's exports to the United States has declined year by year, and by 2018, the proportion of total exports to the US in total exports has decreased from 29.70% in 2006 to 21.69%. Therefore, the textile and garment industry is maintaining At the same time, it is also gradually reducing dependence on the international market. (source: lung Chung)