When Did The Interest Rate Rise In The Current Round Begin?

The Fed may raise interest rates two times in the current year, which has become a matter of planning. There is no secret. It is surprising that the trend of the Dow rose strongly after the increase in interest rates, and the increase was not so small. It hit a new high in the near term. This has become a puzzle. A good fall has actually been reflected in the previous 7 trading days. From the K-line chart, 7 small Yang cross stitches are the best digestibility, so the increase in interest rate has already turned out to be bad and profitable. Of course, the good thing is that there is no gold content. Although it's a little late, at some rate the interest rate is increased.

Whether interest is good or bad, the key is to see what stage the interest rate cycle is going to be, at the beginning stage, it can be interpreted as positive, because this is the confirmation of the economic recovery. Although there are some lags behind, the water skin has written an article in the early years, that is, the process of raising interest rate is the bull market. It reflects that the performance of listed companies will have a process, at least one year or more. However, everything has a process of qualitative change to the qualitative change. In the middle and later stage of the interest rate cycle, raising interest rate is a bad thing, and there will always become a last straw in the final index, because the interest rate will eventually increase the financial cost of the enterprise, thereby reducing the profit of the enterprise and the turning point of its performance. Add

It started at the end of 2015.

The first time after the US quantitative easing bailout, no one could have thought that the second time could drag on a year later, and the interest rate increase was third times, that is to say, it has gone through a period of three months, and during the period, the Dow rose from the lowest 15500 point to the recent more than 21660 point, or far more than 30%, to a certain extent, it has already completed a bull market, and the height of the increase is also limited. The result of the cow is likely to be a high level consolidation, and the realization of the profit will take time. Trump's economic policy constitutes a certain support for the US stocks, to some extent, it can hedge interest rate hikes.

A shares, on the contrary, behave like they can't rise.

The slump on Friday not only made Thursday's gains all spit back, but also increased the volume of pactions.

Why is the fund so tense and even uneasy? In fact, even Thursday's anomaly is also a cornerstone of instability, because the driving force of the index rise comes from the stir up of the securities and banking stocks in the new stock market. What extent does it stir up? Even if the pull limit is directly suspended, the Zhangjiagang line is like this. After the trading limit, the stock price has reached 29.45 yuan, and the P / E ratio is close to 80 times. Is this a price earnings ratio of a bank stock?

The profit ratio is 34.39 times, the market capitalization rate is 48 billion 300 million, and the P / E ratio is already double that of the general brokerage stock. How much is the H share of Zhongyuan securities? The Zhongyuan securities's H-share is 4.45 Hong Kong dollars, which is equivalent to RMB 3.56 yuan, the premium of H/A shares is -211.53%, and the hype of the new shares has entered the most unreliable stage, only the more unreliable stage. The risk of accumulation has reached the point that no one dare to open their eyes. Central Plains securities also became the vanguard of the day's trading, and the market opened on Friday. The closing price was 12.32 yuan.

It was 909 times more frightening than that. It opened on Friday, and the turnover exceeded 6 billion 100 million. The craziness of this stock and even the new plate has surpassed the end of the Danube market and seriously overdrawn the future.

How does it go up?

The United States raised interest rates and the Hong Kong dollar also increased interest rates, but there was no increase in interest rates on the surface of the renminbi. But in fact, the interest on reloans has also been adjusted accordingly. The price of capital has risen again, and the RMB is facing the pressure of devaluation again. Foreign exchange reserves are likely to return to the downward channel. This is the inevitable result of strong dollar and also the contradiction of Trump's accusations against China. The Chinese government hopes that the stability of the exchange rate is stronger than anyone else. How can it manipulate the exchange rate? What is the common sense that Trump really doesn't understand it? He really doesn't understand it. If he really doesn't understand it, let Ma go to class for him.

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