The Impact And Impact Of Trump'S Presidential Election On The RMB Exchange Rate Is Quite Large.

For Trump's remarks, don't take it too seriously, let's not let it go too early. Instead, let's see that after Trump's move, he can see how to make the RMB exchange rate change more active, rather than passive acceptance.

Because President Trump's victory in the election will definitely make frequent moves to the RMB exchange rate, which will also cause a lot of pressure on the market. If we dance with the wind, once there is any trouble, another Google like incident may happen, which may become the theme of the market's speculation and devaluation.

The Central Bank of China should pay special attention to this.

For the current

The biggest impact of this impact on the United States presidential election, and finally elected by Trump, which makes many analysis and prediction all failed, except for a website in India, almost all think that Hilary will be elected, but the actual result is the opposite, Trump election victory.

More importantly, during the US presidential election, the US media and even the global media, as well as many international investment banks' analysis reports, believe that if Trump is elected, it will bring chaos to the US and global economy, and predict that the US and global economy will further decline.

However, the US presidential election has ended for 3 weeks. After the election, the market will find that not only are the media polls unreliable, even the analysis of investment banks and the statements of many American economists are unbelievable.

Because after the election of Trump, not only did the US stock market fail to fall like the analysis reported above, but the global economy did not fall into recession. On the contrary, the US stock market went up sharply, even the Dow Jones index broke the all-time high point, and the US stock market prospered.

With the rise of the US stock market, a large amount of capital flows from the European market and the emerging market to the US market.

Last week, European equity funds had more than US $3 billion in capital flows to the US, and US equity funds absorbed more than $5 billion.

This is a far cry from the results of some earlier international investment analysis reports.

Data show that after Trump won the election, US stock fund inflows amounted to more than US $45 billion.

When a large amount of capital flows into

The US stock market index has been rising and innovating. It also sent some of the funds from the bond market to the stock market. The US dollar exchange rate index climbed 102 to 13 years and the US 10 year treasury bond interest rate rose.

Trump's presidential election, why the analysis of international investment banks and the views of some economists and the actual market will be so different. In fact, this is a lot of analysis related to the elite mode of thinking, often only from presidential candidates' remarks to analyze what will happen in the future, rather than from the perspective of personal characteristics, not from the changing secular world.

In particular, several children of Trent's popularity are businessmen, who have long been dancing in the business world.

These are not the above analysis and considerations.

But in terms of Trump's character and background, Trump's political growth after returning to politics is very high. The latest Trump's cabinet candidates show this trend.

With the continued appreciation of the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate with a basket of currencies as anchor can only continue to depreciate, because the non US dollar currencies are in decline. During this period, the devaluation rate of RMB is over 4.6%.

However, the stable RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate for a few months. Although some people have been saying that the renminbi has no basis for sustained depreciation, the renminbi is only depreciating relative to the US dollar exchange rate and not too worried about the depreciation of the renminbi, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate relative to the US dollar will inevitably lead to massive domestic capital flight.

If we do not pay attention to this problem, this will bring great risks to China's financial market.

At the same time, the Central Bank of China has begun to attack the RMB offshore market in order to curb speculation in the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and so on, so that the RMB exchange rate has begun to stabilize.

But this way

Exchange rate stability is rather fragile.

For example, since Trump ran for the presidency of the United States, he has been pointing fingers at the issue of RMB exchange rate, saying that China is a currency manipulator and the Chinese government has deliberately suspected that the renminbi will depreciate.

After President Trump won the election, Trump's accusation and market reaction also danced.

For example, in December 5th, Google (Google) had seen the RMB exchange rate price Oolong incident.

It was originally a simple systematic error event, which would not cause such a big shock in the market, but it is easy to strengthen the market expectation of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate with the current Trump's announcement on the RMB exchange rate, thus making Google's mistake produce the "Butterfly Effect" of the market.

That is to say, if the central bank does not have a more specific anchor to give the market a clear and definite expectation, then Trump's remarks may become an important factor affecting the RMB exchange rate in the future, or become the black swan with the biggest change in the RMB future exchange rate.

The Central Bank of China has to think about it instead of dancing with the wind of Trump's remarks.

Therefore, for the current RMB exchange rate, the anchor is simpler and better, so the market is easy to understand.

At the same time, the Central Bank of China still wants to communicate with the market, rather than publicizing it with the ideology of the mainstream media and giving the market a clear and definite expectation.

The regulation of RMB exchange rate movements ensures that the current policy remains unchanged. This is the most important way to stabilize the current RMB exchange rate expectations and not to go back to the old road. Otherwise, the market will have less confidence in the RMB exchange rate, and will let the capital flow out of China through different ways.

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