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After The Euro And Sterling Hit A New Low, The V Rally Was Basically Over.

2016/10/27 15:30:00 32

EuroPoundInterest Rate Increase

The Fed may take action in December, and the dollar index still has room for further growth. Before that, the dollar will undergo a wave of adjustment.

The US economic data released during the period were mixed.

The PMI initial value of Markit service industry in October rose from 52.3 to 54.8 in September, the highest level in November 2015, and higher than the expected value of 52.5.

However, the new home sales figures were not good in September.

The total number of new home sales in the US dropped to 593 thousand in September.

The dollar fell slightly on Wednesday.

US dollar index

The continuation of the Asian market pullback dropped to a 98.33 lower day. Overnight, the speech of the governor of the European Central Bank and the governor of the Bank of England lowered the market's further easing expectations and triggered the end of the long profit of the US dollar.

The non US currency rebounded, and the pound hit a 1.2244 day high against the US dollar as the market's interest rate cut in Britain was weakened.

The euro rose to 1.0945 against the US dollar. The speech of the European central bank governor and the Bank of England governor lowered the market's further easing expectations, which triggered the euro's shorts up.

In the short term, the pressure from the fed to raise interest rates and other bad news on the euro is weakening.

Euro

After dropping to an important supporting position, the sell-off also eased significantly.

But investors should not be too optimistic about the euro's rebound. There are still some hurdles for the euro's short-term upward trend, such as Friday's us GDP data.

In addition, a British official said that the new treaty reached by the United Kingdom and the EU in renegotiating the bilateral relations must be examined by the house of Lords and the house of Commons.

The pound hit a maximum of $1.2245, after which the David Jones, which helped Britain's European affairs, made such remarks. Before his speech, the pound had risen, as the market's expectation of a rate cut in the UK weakened.

The pound touched a 0.8919 day high against the euro.

Neil Jones, head of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho hedge fund, said that the market interpretation of David Jones was beneficial to the British pound, because the British Parliament was considered to be inclined to be soft in Britain, that is, Britain retained the EU's single market access status.

He said, "the current trend of sterling reflects whether Britain will retain or lose the EU's single market access right. Any indication that the UK is more difficult to leave the single market may lead to the purchase of sterling."

Carney said next week Britain

Central Bank

There will be "no doubt" that the conference will consider the weakness of the pound.

The Bank of England said in early September that if the economy slowed down unexpectedly, interest rates could be cut again this year.

However, the weakness of the British pound and the unexpectedly strong economic data in the UK have prompted most analysts to exclude the possibility of the central bank cutting interest rates in November 3rd. About 3/4 of the 60 analysts interviewed in the past few days expect the UK interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.25% for the rest of the year.

Here we go again.

From stocks to metals and bonds, the global market has slowed to a crawl, and volatility has returned to a two-year low.

The market is quiet, measuring the cross asset price volatility of stocks, interest rates, exchange rates and commodities to the lowest level since 2014.

In the eyes of some market watchers, the market should be calm on the eve of the US election. It is especially surprising that they see the risk from Washington to Beijing.

They predicted that paralysis had happened again in the past.

In the past, this situation sometimes ended well, because the central bank resorted to measures to hide the bad side of the market.


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