Global Luxury Market Greater China Growth Crisis

The depreciation of the euro began to influence the trend of the luxury market in late 2014, which will continue to extend to the beginning of 2015.

Last year, the industry expected revenue of 224 billion euros ($249 billion), the current exchange rate rose by 3%, while the constant exchange rate rose by 4%.

In the first quarter of 2015, sales grew by 2% to 3% on the basis of a constant exchange rate and 12% to 13% on the basis of the current exchange rate.

Recently, Bain & Co. and Fondazione Altagamma published the 2015 global spring monitoring report on luxury goods market in Milan, Italy. Data show that although exchange rate fluctuations remain the most important determinant of market changes, the entire luxury industry will grow in 2015.

At a constant exchange rate, the increase is expected to be between 2% and 4%.

Altagamma's vice president and luxury goods association writer Armando Branchini pointed out on Thursday that the number of the report "looks very optimistic, but in order to guide the correct and realistic consumer spending growth, it is best to use constant exchange rate forecasts."

According to the constant exchange rate parameters, the study predicts that sales in Europe and Japan will achieve a 5% growth; the Middle East and other parts of the world will achieve 4% growth; the United States will grow by 3%; Asia will grow 2%.

For luxury categories, footwear and bags will grow by 4%, which is in line with jewellery and watches, while clothing, perfume and cosmetics will grow by 3%.

Bain partner Claudia D 'Arpizio emphasizes that luxury consumers are increasingly aware of changes in global market prices.

The price differentials between markets are very unstable, and some countries and cities may encounter excessive distribution. All these require retailers to be able to respond promptly to the dynamics of some key markets.

It is regarded as a key factor affecting the price difference and tourist flow.

Last year, both the mature market and the Middle East showed positive performance.

There are different manifestations, such as the stagnation of the Greater China region, and the rapid growth of the Korean region.

According to previous reports, LVMH, Kai Yun, Hermes and other luxury brands group's latest quarterly earnings report, in China's growth is not optimistic, but in Japan and South Korea surprise growth.

According to the CBRE Group report, Tokyo has become the most rapidly expanding market in the world.

The report shows that on the basis of a constant exchange rate, the Asia Pacific region grew by 3%; on the basis of the current exchange rate, it grew by 2%.

Europe's growth rate was 2%, mainly benefiting from the weakness of the euro, which promoted a large number of tourist flows in the second half of the year.

The 3% increase in the US was mainly due to the good performance of local and tourism consumption, and the slowdown in exchange rate movements in the second half of this year.

Although Japan was affected by the rise in VAT in the second half of the year, local spending has shrunk, but the consumption of luxury goods has increased by 9% in real terms and 1% on a constant exchange rate basis.