PTA Futures Positions Are Rising Again.

Along with the lower price, the sharp rise of PTA futures positions has recently reached a record high and the gap between the two sides has been upgraded. Fundamentals continue to be weak and social stocks are high. Under high pressure, the market is hard to come back, and the overall weakness is hard to reverse. Recently, however, some PTA factories have shown a willingness to cut production, which deserves our attention.

　　 PTA Futures continued to weaken on Thursday. As of the end of the day, the PTA main 1405 contract closed at 6434 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton or 0.43% compared with the day before yesterday's settlement price. In terms of positions, although the main 1405 contract reduced 13922 positions, the 1409 contract increased sharply, and the total position of the market rose to 1 million 38 thousand, creating a new high.

What is particularly noteworthy is that since February 7th, PTA futures have increased positions in 15 consecutive trading days, with total holdings rising from 506 thousand to 1 million 38 thousand. In the view of analysts, PTA is currently oversupply and demand, attracting large capital market short selling. Low position added that the market divergence began to increase.

Weak spot drives this round. Period price The latest spot price has dropped to 6250 yuan / ton. Analysis of bad factors, raw materials for xylene (PX) capacity release, high spot inventory has long suppressed the market. Data show that in 2014, the Asian PX plan increased production and expanded 7 million 900 thousand tons, and the capacity growth rate was 26.5%, of which China plans to increase output by 1 million 550 thousand tons, and its capacity growth rate is close to 15%. At the beginning of 2014, the new capacity of these plans has been gradually put into operation.

It is understood that Sinopec Hainan's 650 thousand tons / year PX plant has been discharged in December 26th, is currently increasing the load; its first single PX will be transported to the Yisheng Hainan 2 million tons / year PTA device. Sinopec's Hainan 85% output is supplied to Yisheng Hainan's PTA plant, and the rest is supplied to Zhuhai. PetroChina Pengzhou petrochemical refinery has been commissioning, and its PX plant is expected to be officially released by April. The aromatics plant of Qingdao Li Dong started to start in mid February. The PX capacity of the plant was originally 700 thousand tons / year, and the capacity expansion was 1 million tons / year. In addition to China's installations, Saudi Arabia's Satorp 700 thousand ton PX plant will be released near the end of February, and may begin shipping PX to India and China in March.

The surge in social inventories shows that PTA itself is seriously oversupply. Related data show that from the second half of 2013 accumulated so far, PTA's social stock has increased to 250-270 tons.

"The gradual release of capacity has led to a sharp decline in the price of PX, which has dropped by 13% from the initial $1400 / tonne in early January to the current US $1200 / ton, which has led to a decline in the cost of PTA support and an increase in the capacity of PTA itself, which has brought greater pressure on the market." Guotai Junan Futures Dong Dandan said. "Downstream polyester performance is poor, social inventory is high, at present, the PTA industry chain has not yet eased signs for the time being, and the downtrend is expected to continue."

Zheng Shang Post's position report shows yesterday PTA futures The top 20 Futures Company seats increased from single to 5900 to 341 thousand, while the first 20 were empty, 10377 to 319 thousand.

China International Futures Hu Jianbing said that this decline is mainly due to the amplification of the financial market's current PTA negative factors, such as the huge social inventory of PTA, the huge capacity of PX and PTA. It is true that demand recovery is slow after the festival, but now it is almost over in February. The polyester load has risen from the lowest 60.5% near the end of January to the current 70%, and the load of terminal Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has also risen to 65%.

In fact, some enterprises have shown their willingness to cut production. In the industry seminars recently held, Tong Kun and Far East enterprises have already reduced production and self-discipline. The industry rumors that the industry leader Yisheng will reduce the load of 5 million tons. Recently, Xiang Lu Petrochemical briefly stopped. However, in some analysts' view, the current PTA inventory is too high, such a move will not have much impact on the market estimate.